Housing availability should bounce back to pre-pandemic levels by around 2024–25 with new household builds expected to exceed new supply with more than 1.7 million new households expected to enter the market from now to 2032.

 

 

New household construction is expected to recover from 60,000 in 2022 to 182,000 by 2025

 

State of the nations housing 2021-22

Most growth expectations are for single person households as NHFIC predicts approx. 361,000 families with kids (21% growth), 488,000 families without kids (29% growth) and 595,000 lone person households (35%) to form from 2022 to 2032.

 

Our rents will continue to rise in the near term as border restrictions are relaxed and competition increases from international students and travelers seeking homes.

 

Supply issues, lags slower lead times in many markets around Australia are increasing housing costs.

 

With a six year plus average for new housing supplies to arrive to market and some areas pulling back on development decisions now are going to further exacerbate problems in future years when population growth is expected to return to more normal levels.

 

Rental property across Australia

 

  • In Sydney and Melbourne, rental affordability improved modestly since 2020 (through to September 2021) given these cities were most affected by the falls in migration, although rental pressures in these cities have been building on the back of falling vacancy rates. In other cities and regional areas, rental affordability has deteriorated.

 

  • Sydney and Hobart remain the most unaffordable places for first home buyers, with the bottom 60% of income earners being able to afford mortgage repayments on less than 10% of the housing stock in the market. This is a further deterioration in affordability since 2020.

 

  • First home buyers continue to fare relatively better in regional areas, but affordability has also deteriorated across many regions in 2021, particularly regional NSW, Vic and Tas due to relatively strong price growth.


  • Recent pandemic related initiatives to support social and affordable housing will likely provide some partial catch up for addressing growing waiting lists. Governments should continue to improve the quality and consistency of their social and affordable housing data to help inform improved long term housing needs assessments.

*Download and save the report Supplied by National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation

Download Report

40% of Sydney rental listings were withdrawn

 

Despite the large shock to population growth and lower rates of household formation, housing markets have remained resilient and price growth has remained strong on the back of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Strong house price growth has raised concerns about financial stability. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has intervened by increasing the mortgage serviceability buffer, with price growth slowing in recent months

Over the next 3 years, we expect an average of 184,000 net new dwellings will be constructed per annum, which are historically high levels.

 

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Rising interest rates likely to slow new construction

 

RBA says raising interest rates wasn’t plausible until 2024, although recently has said rates could rise sooner. Financial markets anticipate an earlier rise in interest rates.

 

Trends in 2021 suggest that in the larger states, there may be more movement from capital cities to regions into 2022

 

Rents are likely to continue to rise in the near term as international border restrictions are relaxed.

 

Regional areas generally outperformed capital cities as buyers flocked to more affordable lifestyle markets to upsize and take advantage of more flexible work arrangements.

 

Construction activity for detached housing was increasing rapidly on the back of low interest rates and state and federal government stimulus measures.

 


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Sam Bloch

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Sam Bloch

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